So the Scottish Parliament election has come to an end and the results are in. The SNP increased their vote share and did really well but didn’t manage a majority despite an increase in votes. This is because the current voting system in Scotland is designed to prevent a single party from being able to get an outright majority forcing parties to have to work with others. The 2011 SNP majority was a pure fluke that was never meant to happen and is unlikely to be repeated easily. Why is this? It’s because of the D’Hont system. There seems to be much confusion amongst voters in Scotland over how the D’Hont voting system works, some confuse it with STV while others have little understanding of the formula behind it or simply misinterpret it.
So how does the system work? When casting your vote you have two ballot papers. The first ballot paper you are casting your vote for a candidate to represent your constituency, the second ballot is a vote for a party for your region. The first ballot is a simple first past the post system, the candidate with the most votes gets elected. Where things get complicated is what happens next in calculating the vote allocation on the list vote.
In an attempt to make the parliament more proportional when calculating the list vote the total number of list votes are taken then divided by the number of seats already gained + 1. The idea behind this is to give smaller parties a chance of gaining a seat. So what does this look like? Let’s take a look at the Highlands and Islands region.
Highlands and Islands Scottish Parliament region is made up of 8 constituencies.
- Argyll and Bute
- Caithness, Sutherland and Ross
- Inverness and Nairn
- Moray
- Na h-Eileanan an Iar
- Orkney
- Shetland
- Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch
Following the 2021 Scottish Parliament election, the constituencies were won by the SNP with 6 seats and the Lib Dems with 2 seats.
- Argyll and Bute – Jenni Minto (SNP)
- Caithness, Sutherland and Ross – Maree Todd (SNP)
- Inverness and Nairn – Fergus Ewing (SNP)
- Moray – Richard Lochhead (SNP)
- Na h-Eileanan an Iar – Alasdair Allan (SNP)
- Orkney – Liam McArthur (LD)
- Shetland – Beatrice Wishart (LD)
- Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch – Kate Forbes (SNP)
So far we have SNP 6 seats and Lib Dems 2 seats from the constituency vote. Here are the numbers for the H&I Regional list vote below.
- SCOTTISH NATIONAL PARTY (SNP) (96,433)
- SCOTTISH CONSERVATIVE AND UNIONIST PARTY (60,779)
- SCOTTISH LIBERAL DEMOCRATS (26,771)
- SCOTTISH LABOUR PARTY (22,713)
- SCOTTISH GREEN PARTY (17,729)
- ALBA PARTY (3,828)
- WIGHTMAN, ANDY (3,367)
- SCOTTISH FAMILY PARTY (1,976)
- ALL FOR UNITY (1,540)
- ABOLISH THE SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT PARTY (686)
- FREEDOM ALLIANCE- INTEGRITY, SOCIETY, ECONOMY (671)
- REFORM UK (547)
- SCOTTISH LIBERTARIAN PARTY (488)
- UK INDEPENDENCE PARTY (UKIP) (457)
- RESTORE SCOTLAND (437)
- SCOTTISH TRADE UNIONIST AND SOCIALIST COALITION (280)
- MANSFIELD, HAZEL (219)
So to start with as the SNP already has 6 seats their list vote is then divided by this number +1. So their actual list vote at the start is 96,433 / 7 = 13,776. That’s a whopping 82,656 votes binned. The Lib Dems have 2 seats so their starting number is 26,771 / 3 = 8,923. So the top six parties on the list now look like this.
- SCOTTISH CONSERVATIVE AND UNIONIST PARTY (60,779)
- SCOTTISH LABOUR PARTY (22,713)
- SCOTTISH GREEN PARTY (17,729)
- SCOTTISH NATIONAL PARTY (SNP) (13,776)
- SCOTTISH LIBERAL DEMOCRATS (8,923)
- ALBA PARTY (3,828)
There are 7 seats to be won on the list vote in the region, so let’s see how this played out for this election. With the Scottish Conservatives now at the top with over 60k votes they get a seat and their votes are now divided by 2 so their votes numbers are now 30,389.
SEATS: CON: 1
- SCOTTISH CONSERVATIVE AND UNIONIST PARTY (30,389)
- SCOTTISH LABOUR PARTY (22,713)
- SCOTTISH GREEN PARTY (17,729)
- SCOTTISH NATIONAL PARTY (SNP) (13,776)
- SCOTTISH LIBERAL DEMOCRATS (8,923)
- ALBA PARTY (3,828)
With the Conservative vote now halved they still remain at the top so they gain another seat and their original 60,779 number is now divided by 3 bring the number to 20,259.
SEATS: CON: 2
- SCOTTISH LABOUR PARTY (22,713)
- SCOTTISH CONSERVATIVE AND UNIONIST PARTY (20,259)
- SCOTTISH GREEN PARTY (17,729)
- SCOTTISH NATIONAL PARTY (SNP) (13,776)
- SCOTTISH LIBERAL DEMOCRATS (8,923)
- ALBA PARTY (3,828)
Now on this third round Labour are at the top and gain a seat. Their number is now divided by 2 giving them 11,356 now putting them below the SNP.
SEATS: CON: 2 | LAB: 1
- SCOTTISH CONSERVATIVE AND UNIONIST PARTY (20,259)
- SCOTTISH GREEN PARTY (17,729)
- SCOTTISH NATIONAL PARTY (SNP) (13,776)
- SCOTTISH LABOUR PARTY (11,356)
- SCOTTISH LIBERAL DEMOCRATS (8,923)
- ALBA PARTY (3,828)
In this fourth round, the Conservative party is now back at the top to gain a third seat. Their vote share is now divided by 4 to give them 15,194.
SEATS: CON: 3 | LAB: 1
- SCOTTISH GREEN PARTY (17,729)
- SCOTTISH CONSERVATIVE AND UNIONIST PARTY (15,194)
- SCOTTISH NATIONAL PARTY (SNP) (13,776)
- SCOTTISH LABOUR PARTY (11,356)
- SCOTTISH LIBERAL DEMOCRATS (8,923)
- ALBA PARTY (3,828)
This now puts the Greens at the top so they gain a seat and their vote share is divided by 2 giving them 8,864.
SEATS: CON: 3 | LAB: 1 | GREEN: 1
- SCOTTISH CONSERVATIVE AND UNIONIST PARTY (15,194)
- SCOTTISH NATIONAL PARTY (SNP) (13,776)
- SCOTTISH LABOUR PARTY (11,356)
- SCOTTISH LIBERAL DEMOCRATS (8,923)
- SCOTTISH GREEN PARTY (8,864)
- ALBA PARTY (3,828)
So just 2 seats left now, in this sixth round the Conservatives are on top once again to gain a fourth seat, and their vote share is now divided by 5 giving them 12,155.
SEATS: CON: 4 | LAB: 1 | GREEN: 1
- SCOTTISH NATIONAL PARTY (SNP) (13,776)
- SCOTTISH CONSERVATIVE AND UNIONIST PARTY (12,155)
- SCOTTISH LABOUR PARTY (11,356)
- SCOTTISH LIBERAL DEMOCRATS (8,923)
- SCOTTISH GREEN PARTY (8,864)
- ALBA PARTY (3,828)
On the final round, the SNP manage to scrape the last seat making the final makeup CON: 4 | LAB: 1 | GREEN: 1 | SNP: 1
Giving the Highlands and Islands the following representatives…
Douglas Ross – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party
Edward Mountain – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party
Rhoda Grant – Scottish Labour Party
Donald Cameron – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party
Ariane Claire Burgess – Scottish Green Party
Jamie Halcro Johnston – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party
Emma Roddick – Scottish National Party
What if it went differently?
Lets pretend that all those SNP list votes were instead given to ALBA. As ALBA was not standing on the Constituency vote the total votes would not be divided at the start. So the starting point would be like so…
- ALBA PARTY (96,433)
- SCOTTISH CONSERVATIVE AND UNIONIST PARTY (60,779)
- SCOTTISH LABOUR PARTY (22,713)
- SCOTTISH GREEN PARTY (17,729)
- SCOTTISH LIBERAL DEMOCRATS (8,923)
Round 1
SEATS: ALBA: 1
- SCOTTISH CONSERVATIVE AND UNIONIST PARTY (60,779)
- ALBA PARTY (48,216)
- SCOTTISH LABOUR PARTY (22,713)
- SCOTTISH GREEN PARTY (17,729)
- SCOTTISH LIBERAL DEMOCRATS (8,923)
Round 2
SEATS: ALBA: 1 | CON: 1
- ALBA PARTY (48,216)
- SCOTTISH CONSERVATIVE AND UNIONIST PARTY (30,389)
- SCOTTISH LABOUR PARTY (22,713)
- SCOTTISH GREEN PARTY (17,729)
- SCOTTISH LIBERAL DEMOCRATS (8,923)
Round 3
SEATS: ALBA: 2 | CON: 1
- ALBA PARTY (32,144)
- SCOTTISH CONSERVATIVE AND UNIONIST PARTY (30,389)
- SCOTTISH LABOUR PARTY (22,713)
- SCOTTISH GREEN PARTY (17,729)
- SCOTTISH LIBERAL DEMOCRATS (8,923)
Round 4
SEATS: ALBA: 3 | CON: 1
- SCOTTISH CONSERVATIVE AND UNIONIST PARTY (30,389)
- ALBA PARTY (24,106)
- SCOTTISH LABOUR PARTY (22,713)
- SCOTTISH GREEN PARTY (17,729)
- SCOTTISH LIBERAL DEMOCRATS (8,923)
Round 5
SEATS: ALBA: 3 | CON: 2
- ALBA PARTY (24,106)
- SCOTTISH LABOUR PARTY (22,713)
- SCOTTISH CONSERVATIVE AND UNIONIST PARTY (20,259)
- SCOTTISH GREEN PARTY (17,729)
- SCOTTISH LIBERAL DEMOCRATS (8,923)
Round 6
SEATS: ALBA: 4 | CON: 2
- SCOTTISH LABOUR PARTY (22,713)
- SCOTTISH CONSERVATIVE AND UNIONIST PARTY (20,259)
- ALBA PARTY (19,433)
- SCOTTISH GREEN PARTY (17,729)
- SCOTTISH LIBERAL DEMOCRATS (8,923)
Final Round
SEATS: ALBA: 4 | CON: 2 | LAB: 1
So had the message gone through and the pro-indy electorate had chosen ALBA on their list vote we would have had two fewer tories representing the Highlands and Islands and instead of having 5 Unionist parties to 2 “pro-indy” parties (if you can call the Greens pro-Indy as they aren’t overly enthusiastic about it), we would have 4 pro-indy parties to 3 Unionist parties.
This is how the #SuperMajority Strategy could have delivered a greater pro-independence presence in the parliament with a much greater majority of MSP backing indy. But instead with the “both votes SNP” strategy, we end up with more Unionist parties getting into parliament purely because the system is set up the way it is.
